I have resumed the blog again in earnest, having been away for much of December. I was particularly glad to spend a week in Israel (only my second visit), attending a conference for which I know of no counterpart in other democracies.
Whereas political commentators in Europe frequently speak of a 'democratic deficit' in EU governance, Israel has quite a different problem: a political system in which the centre (by which I mean the insititutions of state, not the ideological centre) finds it difficult to hold. It is frequently implicity assumed by outsiders that Israel is a homogeneous force (this must be the assumption, because otherwise the ubiquitous complaint that the Bush administration is not pressuring Israel enough would make no sense). In reality she is one of the most highly-stratified societies in the world - ethnically, religiously and economically - and has one of the least suitable political systems for a country that badly needs an effective executive. Israel's purist form of proportional representation makes the business of forming - and maintaining - coalition government painful. Bizarrely, the country even tried a system of direct election for prime minister that merely made it more difficult to form a stable government, by divorcing the PM from the party system.
A political system like this isn't easy to reconcile with long-term strategic thinking about policy, especially given the urgency of defending Israeli civilians from terrorist attack. An Israeli university, the InterDisciplinary Centre at Herzliya, established a conference five years ago which has turned into an annual and extremely important event in the Israeli political calendar, to address this need. The equivalent in the UK would be an event where Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Jack Straw, Michael Howard and the Queen all vented their views about everything. And even though Blair is widely criticised for bypassing parliament, nothing like this could ever happen here. The Herzliya Conference is in effect a means of bypassing a sclerotic political system in order to gain a clearer view of national and regional affairs, and it works. In 2003 it was the forum in which Ariel Sharon announced his disengagement plan from Gaza. This year the conference comprised around 1700 Israeli and other delegates, all of them invited rather than self-selected.
I was glad to be able to attend as a delegate, and also to take part in the press briefings and visits to, among other places, the Foreign Ministry and the security fence in the north of the country. My thanks go particularly to the Israelis - Safra, Mitchell, Jonathan, David and others - who gave me their impressions. (Disclosure: while in Israel, I was a guest of the Foreign Ministry, which paid for my hotel accommodation; I paid for my own flights to and from Israel.) I was also rather touched that a number of the readers of this site introduced themselves; I shall consider carefully the helpful suggestion of Professor Fred Siegel, whose lucidly-advocated position on the American Left is very similar to where I stand on the British Left, that perhaps the appeal of this blog might be made broader for non-UK readers if the Liberal Democrats were to make fewer appearances in it.
These are the main conclusions I would make as an outsider, having spent admittedly little time in Israel but committed both to the nation's security and to a durable, peaceful two-state accommodation with the Palestinians.
First, the approach taken by the present Israeli government has been far more effective than its foreign critics claim. I wrote a column last summer arguing that the dual strategy of building the security fence and attacking terrorist organisations directly was a prerequisite of a lasting peace, and was working. That still appears to be the case. One of my interlocutors, a senior official at the Foreign Ministry who had been a member of Israel's negotiating team at Oslo and who clearly identified with the Barak wing of Israeli politics rather than the Sharon wing, was adamant on this point. The fence has allowed Israelis a breathing space from the terrible carnage and demoralisation suffered by her civilians at the height of the Intifada. My interlocutor had himself known no fewer than six people killed in suicide attacks - civilians travelling by bus or eating in a restaurant.
(I should reiterate too that the fence really is a fence, made of chain-linked wire, and not a wall, as its critics maintain. There is a small section of it that is a wall, looking something like the type of barriers that you see at the verges of motorways in this country. The resemblance is not accidental, because that's exactly what that part of the security fence is: a barrier alongside a main road where sniper fire had been directed at motorists, and which a fence would be powerless to stop.)
In addition, these security measures have reinforced an overwhelming consensus in Israeli society for a strategy of defensive deterrence, withdrawal from strategically and politically indefensible settlements in Gaza, and direct negotiations for a Palestinian state. The worst speech I heard during the whole conference was not from an Israeli speaker but from an American: a former Reagan administration official, Frank Gaffney, who maintained that any conceivable Palestinian state would be a terrorist threat. This is a counsel of despair at what is the most promising moment for political accommodation I can recall.
One of the reasons for that hopefulness is something that, so far as I can see, Israel finds difficult to say publicly for domestic political reasons. Israeli politics has shifted on both wings, but it has done so particularly markedly on the Right.
More than 20 years ago Israeli society was sharply divided over the Lebanon War - the first and only war Israel has fought that has not been forced upon her (and yes, I know Israel technically struck first in the Six-Day War, but my point still holds). Identifying with the Labour Zionist tradition, I at that time favoured the emerging Israeli peace movement, Peace Now. I still conclude that the war did no lasting good and significant damage. The PLO's expulsion from southern Lebanon created a vacuum that Hizbollah filled, with no net gain to Israeli security and with substantial loss of life. I remain more sympathetic to the Israeli peace movement than those who are commonly known outside Israel as neoconservatives (of whom I am not one, though I frequently receive correspondence, not all of it unfriendly, mistakenly claiming otherwise); unlike, say, the British anti-war movement, which explicitly favours the victory of fascism in Iraq, or the International Solidarity Movement, which serves as an ideological apologist for terrorism, the Israeli peace movement associated with such figures as the novelist Amos Oz has valid aims and democratic politcs. I am not any longer a supporter of it, however, as I believe the very name 'Peace Now' gives an unfortunate and false impression that it is within Israel's power unilaterally to create peace. At the same time as the parties of the Left have had to acknowledge the heroic failure of Oslo, the parties of the Right have been won to the cause of direct negotiation with the Palestinians. When I hear people such as Gaffney draw, from the unquestionable fact of Yassir Arafat's duplicity and brutality, the inference that Israel must abandon the search for a serious negotiating partner, I wonder why very few Israelis have taken that view despite the demonstrable failure of the Palestinian Authority to discharge its treaty obligations over the past dozen years to crack down on terrorist groups.
I get the impression that, with a successful security policy that I have strongly supported in the press and elsewhere, Israel has done what it is within her power to do unilaterally. She has created - in the dreadful cliche of 1970s arms control - a window of opportunity, with a firm indication of good and peaceful intent. Now that the Palestinians have lost a corrupt and destructive leader, I am hopeful that for the first time for years a genuine political dialogue can take place that involves give-and-take, and not merely one side giving and the other taking. The proper course for diplomats and politicians outside the region is to cease attacking Israel for not being able to create peace by fiat, and to allow the parties to negotiate directly without benefit of meddling outsiders.